Saturday, January 12, 2013

Pavel Datsyuk... What do the Wings do with him?

Ahh, my friends the Lockout is over. And while the hockey world is talking about the trade scenarios that can land Roberto Luongo in Toronto, let's look at a new scenario that the NHL's model franchise is having to look at.

For the first time in 20 years the Detroit Red Wings do not look like a playoff team going into the new season, largely because they lost a once in a generation player in Nick Lidstrom and they lost arguibly their 2nd best defenseman in Brad Stuart.  This season the Red Wings are going to rely heavily on rookies.  Honestly I don't think the Red Wings prospects are as good as the Red Wings and other experts say that they are. (I like Brendan Smith, not sold on Nyquist, not sold on Mursak, not sold on Brunner who TSN predicts will get a top-6 role on the Red Wings). With all that put together plus a condensed schedule in the tough Central Division, I don't think the Red Wings get into the playoffs this year.



That said, I think it's time for the Red Wings to consider rebuilding. And the question facing the Red Wings for the next year and a half is what to do with Pavel Datsyuk. For the duration since the 2004-2005 lockout Pavel Datsyuk has been a world class player. He provides consistancy, stability, and skill in both the offensive zone and defensive zone. Datsyuk arguibly has the best hands in the NHL, what he can do with the puck is incredible. But, Pavel Datsyuk is 34 years old, with only 2 years (including this year) remaining on his contract. During the lockout Datsyuk has expressed intrest in finishing his career in Russia in the KHL. I think it isn't inconcieveable that Datsyuk considers not resigning with the Red Wings at the end of the 2014 season. So the debate rises when any team deals with this issue, do you keep him for the team success and hope he resigns at the end of his contract (at which he'll be 36, Russians tend to lose a step as they age, ex: Molgilny, Federov, Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, even Datsyuk the last 2 years, I know he's battled injuries but at the same time he's battled injuries, he missed a total of 13 games from 2005-2010, he missed a total of 38 games the last 2 seasons.)  I think the Red Wings are out of their cup window, they are a fringe playoff team, and I think they lack the talent to get through teams at the top of the Western Conference (LA, Vancouver, Chicago, St. Louis, Edmonton, (in a year or 2 from now), Colorado (see Edmonton), Nashville, Minnesota, Dallas (See Edmonton))
Courtesy of CBS Sports

Let's look at the 2 scenarios the Red Wings are facing

Keep Datsyuk:
Let me start out by saying I think this is a huge mistake. If they keep Datsyuk they keep their chance to make playoffs as a low seed, which in hockey any team in the top 8 can win the Cup, this isn't the NBA. If you keep Datsyuk he can also be a mentor to the youngsters the Wings have coming up the pipeline.

Trade Datsyuk
What can go wrong for the Red Wings the next 2 seasons that they have Datsyuk? The Red Wings don't make the playoffs the next 2 seasons. The Red Wing prospects don't turn out to be as good as they are thought to be and they either struggle or they can't hold down a spot in the top-2 lines. Datsyuk has a serious injury and misses long periods of time. I think there are more realistic scenarios of what can go wrong for the Red Wings the next 2 years than good/best case scenarios that can go right. If the Wings look to trade Datsyuk he can easily bring in 3-4 pieces, I would expect a mid-age roster player (age 25-30), a top tier prospect, 1-3 high draft picks, I would expect a 1st rounder mixed in with a 2nd or a 3rd round pick. This draft year you also have a special prospect in Seth Jones who has the tools to be an elite defenseman in the NHL, both offensivly and defensivly. If the Red Wings keep Datsyuk they take the risk of losing him in the summer of 2014, and the longer they keep him the more they risk a serious injury possibly ending his tenure with the Red Wings.

It's an interesting aspect of what the Red Wings future holds. What the Wings front office and Ken Holland (who collectivly haven't made a mistake in 21 years) decides to do with Pavel Datsyuk will be a test of their ability to manage and adjust to incredible roster turnover in the "New NHL".

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

The Lockout... (continues)

All summer all NHL fans were hearing was "CBA", "Labor Negotiations", "Potential Lockout"...

Well the NHL lockout has been going on for 7 weeks now, already 26% of the NHL season has been cancelled with more cancellations expected this week. This is a letter, a message to players and owners from a die hard fan who spends hard earned money to watch hockey.

To whom it may concern:

The NHL lockout is FUCKING REDICULOUS. There is absolutley no point to it. Fans are fucking angry, sad, and lost.

TO THE PLAYERS

It makes no sense to a fan that players aren't willing to take a 12% pay cut when they are making MILLIONS OF FUCKING DOLLARS. Money that fans could only dream to make. To the players, from a player who didn't make it, you guys are the 1% of the 1% of hockey players that get to play beyond the age of Juniors/College at a high level. You guys are the guys who get to play the fucking game of hockey everyday for hours and get paid to do it. Other hockey players PAY AS MUCH AS $25 AN HOUR TO PLAY FUCKING HOCKEY. We actually have to pay to play hockey. DO NHL PLAYERS REALIZE THE PRICE OF FUCKING HOCKEY EQUIPMENT, LET ALONE THE REDICULOUS PRICE TO PLAY ON A POORLY MAINTAINED SHEET OF ICE AND NOT TO MENTION THE PRICE TO HAVE WORTHLESS REFEREE'S WATCH OVER THE GAME AND MAKE STUPID FUCKING CALLS? To NHL players, for everyone of you there's 10,000 players who DIDN'T MAKE IT TO THE SHOW. For the players that didn't make it, the vast majority of them are willing to cut off a fucking testicle and pay $1,000 to pull on an NHL Jersey and play in a FUCKING NHL Game.

TO THE OWNERS
You the owners signed players to contracts. As employers, when you agree on a price for labor for employees you are expected to follow through ON YOUR FUCKING AGREEMENT. TAKE FUCKING RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE PROMISES YOU MADE TO THE PLAYERS. Look I get it why the Owners need the Players to take a pay cut. OWNERS ARE FUCKING BILLIONAIRES... They can't wait a 2-3 years for player's salaries to gradually decrease? To the owners, from a fan: FUCK YOU. YOU GUYS ARE HOLDING MONEY THAT I FUCKING PAID YOU FOR A PRODUCT I EXPECT TO SEE ON THE ICE, YOU'RE NOT WILLING TO REFUND MY MONEY UNTIL THE GAMES ARE FUCKING CANCELLED AND IT'S FUCKING BULLSHIT.

To BOTH NEGOTIATING PARTIES
You need to be negotiating. We're beyond offering proposals, it's now time to take proposals from both the PA AND THE LEAGUE on the table and come to a middle ground that satisfies both parties. MR. BETTMAN, MR. DALY, AND THE FEHR BROTHERS, SIT DOWN TO THE FUCKING NEGOTIATION TABLE AND DON'T LEAVE THE FUCKING ROOM UNTIL AN AGREEMENT HAS BEEN REACHED.

YOU ARE HURTING THE FANS, YOUR CUSTOMERS WHO PAY WHAT DISCRETIONARY INCOME THEY HAVE AVAILABLE ON YOUR FUCKING PRODUCT. FANS WERE LOYAL, FANS GAVE THE LEAGUE A SECOND CHANCE AFTER THE 2004 LOCKOUT. THE TIME IS NOW TO END THE GOD DAMN LOCKOUT.

Friday, June 22, 2012

Rick Nash trade pt. 2... Scott Howson is an Idiot.

Mr. Howson,

You have to trade Rick Nash, you absolutly have to trade him, if you bring him back as the captain in October, you will have made the dumbest NHL executive decision, even dumber than Mike Millbury trading for Alexei Yashin. You can't bring back a guy that ask for a trade and you yourself confirmed it to the media and public. If you bring back a guy like Nash he will be a poision for the Blue Jacket's roster, guys in that room will wonder why he's still there, they will question Nash's commitment to the team, they will question their own futures with the Blue Jackets, and even though Columbus isn't a high free agent destination, Howson will lose all credit and a significant amount of respect from future free agents.

Before the deadline, it was a RUMOR that Nash potentially on the trading block, and teams were willing to test the waters of what Howson would take, and teams like the Rangers who didn't want to pay the price for Nash at the deadline and who didn't want a huge shakeup of their roster going into the playoffs, they may have been willing to meet Howson's demands for Nash at the draft. But things changed, and Mr. Howson this is by far the dumbest, classless, and boneheaded move you made at the deadline when you announced to THE PUBLIC MEDIA that Nash REQUESTED a trade. There's a reason why no executive in any field, much less professional sports, much less professional hockey keeps these types of discussions behind the scenes.

Mr. Howson, now that teams KNOW that Rick Nash requested a trade they will not offer near as much as they would've if Nash's potential trade remained a rumor. Teams are betting that you are not stupid enough to bring Nash back as a Blue Jacket in the fall, and if you are dumb enough to hold on to him you will ruin the Jackets franchise for the next 5-10 years.

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Game 6, the Turning Point.


After watching the 2011-2012 NHL season come to a close and watching the Kings skate around the Cup, and watching the highlights again and again, it's clear the game turned on one play. 

Those who watched the game know what play it was.  For those who didn't you'll see it on every highlight reel of that game, but I'll summarize it.  A little after the halfway point in the 1st period, Jarrett Stoll hit Stephen Gionta into the boards, it was a border line call, at most a 2 minute penalty.  Then as the play continued the puck ended up deep in the Kings zone and Steve Bernier of the Devils drove Rob Scuderi through the end boards, to-the-letter, a 5 minute boarding/game misconduct penalty.  During the 5 minute major penalty the Kings would score 3 times and thus put away the New Jersey Devils by the end of the 1st period.

If you play or coach hockey there is a huge lesson to be learned.  Immediatly after the penalty call was made the New Jersey Devil's bench lost their minds, the coaching staff, the players on the bench, and the players on the ice (including Martin Brodeur).  Their entire focus of the Devils went off of the game and directy on the referee.  If you play or coach hockey you know a referee in hockey will never change their minds on a call, especially a penalty call.  They can't, if they do it completely challanges the referee's control of the game, thus ARGUING WITH A REFEREE IS A WASTE OF TIME.  It's one thing to do it in "meaningless" regular season game or at any other point in the season but it's a whole other ball game doing it in Stanley Cup Final game where you're facing elimination and you're trying to come back from a 0-3 deficit in 7 game series, against a better/tougher opponent, and which you need to be almost perfect to beat your opponent. 

After a controversial series of plays like the series of play that went down in the latter stages of the 1st period of Game 6, there's going to be some anger on the bench and anger and argument directed towards the referee but, it's the job of the leaders on that bench, the coaching staff, and the head coach Peter Debour to make sure the players get onto the ice focused and are completely hell bent on escaping the penalty kill without letting up a goal.  If they were to kill off the penalty the game probably goes into the 1st intermission 0-0, 1-1 after the 2nd period, and anything could have happened in the 3rd period.  What if the Devils won the 3rd period? They had a powerplay to start the 3rd period, they got another powerplay shortly after.  Maybe the Devils get a Game 7, at home, where the Devils have all the momentum in the series after coming back from that 0-3 hole.

But that's all speculation... Maybe the Kings would've still won game 6, maybe they would've won game 7. But maybe the Devils would've won the cup.  It's over now, you learn your lessons, you let your bumps and bruises heal or get surgery if nessecary, you get back in hockey shape, prepare for the season, and begin it all again in September... That's the beauty of hockey.

Congrats to the LA Kings, you guys earned it.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Common Misconceptions about the Hockey Equipment Industry

Over the last 3 years of working in a hockey shop I've learned a lot about the industry and what shocks me is how little customers know about the hockey equipment industry. 

One of the biggest misconceptions about the equipment industry is that manufactures strictly control their pricing, like states regulate tobacco and alcohol products.  If a company sells below the MAP pricing routinly they can get their account discontinued by the manufacturer.  That being said a big company like Monkey Sports or Total Hockey can test the MAP policy a lot riskier than your local pro-shop.  However at the end of the day, all retailers are supposed to be playing on the same field, thus the only way a retail company makes a profit is by selling as much merchandise as possible. 

Another big misconception is the profit margins on pieces of equipment, especially sticks and skates.  On most pieces of gear there is a 30-35% bump between the cost of goods sold (a term used in my accounting course) and the MAP price that it is sold for at the store level.  Because of this many stores have to order exactly what they are going to sell to avoid selling clearance items at or below cost.  For example the $799.99 skates from Bauer and Reebok have a cost around $540-560 (after shipping) so in order to make up the cost on 1 skate the company has to sell 3 skates.  This plays a huge role when items go on clearance.

Sticks in my opinion however are the biggest misconception that customers just don't know about.  Of all pieces of hockey equipment, sticks are the least profitable items that a company sells.  Especially the high end composite hockey sticks.  Sticks are what manufactures like Bauer, Easton, and Warrior make the majority of their profits from, and they don't share it with the retailers.  Because of the nature of composite sticks and their durability or lack there of I should say, retailers will not handle warranty claims of sticks.  Unless you're a perfect customer (buying everything from only one shop and buying at least $100 of merchandise a month on top of sharpenings and tape), retailers will not help you out.  The exception of this rule is knock off sticks such as the Powertech brand.  It's not that retailers don't want to help you out, most of them would be more than happy to help out with broken sticks but they just can't afford to help. 

Really what makes money for a retail shop is services that they offer - sharpenings, equipment repair, ect.  Next time you go to buy gear keep this information in mind, and if you're shopping for gear remember you may find an item cheaper online but you're really doing your local shop a favor by purchasing from them.